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Top Stock Pick for Friday August 7th

Posted by StocksNoob | Stock Picks | Thursday 6 August 2009 9:40 pm

Shares of Citigroup (C) rose 6.32% after-hours closing at $4.04 per share. Most of the investment pundits are calling Citigroup a “Buy”.

The news broke out that Citigroup received the contract worth $7.7 million to administer the “Cars for Clunkers” program. Recently, all the news surrounding Citigroup have been positive.

Citi Group

Here are Jim Cramer’s top 5 reasons for buying Citigroup shares right now.

Cramer’s first reason: Simply, it’s cheap. Dirt cheap. Although it’s difficult to figure out what Citigroup worth and what it is going to earn, but Cramer has identified its book value at about $4 per share. Cramer sees the bank, with a global franchise and profitability in hand, should sell at 1.5 times book value, not to mention that book value looks to be on the rise. Doing some basic algebra, this means you have a $6 price target.

Second: On September 10th the government is free to start selling its 34% ownership position in the company. Here’s where he sees your opportunity to close the budget deficit. Take into account that right now the government is up almost $5 billion on its position in Citigroup. If Cramer’s price target is correct, the government and the taxpayer may have a $20 billion windfall on its plate.

Reason number three: Citigroup is the dominant bank in 108 countries outside of the United States with fifty percent of its business is in emerging markets. Citigroup is a global franchise that will recover with the rest of the world, even if America lags behind, Cramer says.

Fourth: The company is getting itself out of bad loans and doing it fast by dividing the bank into Citigroup Holdings and Citigroup proper. The latter is one-third retail banking, one third global services and one-third investment banking, which is composed of underwriting and fixed income trading. These three portions of the business are extremely profitable already, and Cramer thinks this reorganization will bring out value and help the stock make it to the $6 mark.

Fifth and final reason: The company’s existing management. Cramer doesn’t see either CEO Vikram Pandit or CFO Ned Kelly, aren’t going anywhere, as government would be out of their minds to replace them.

And why is the stock down in the 3 dollar range? The government’s dilution was terrible for existing shareholders and mortgages and credit cards certainly have the potential to go sour in a sluggish economy, but Cramer sees things on the rebound and Citigroup is heavily reserved to avoid any problems in the future.”

By: Paul Toscano

Source

FNM and FRE Soaring Today or Are They?

Posted by StocksNoob | Investment, Penny Stocks | Thursday 6 August 2009 11:01 am

The stock trend of Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) has been utterly predictable. The stocks rise up (together) to about $0.95-$0.98, once every month or so and then die down.
Luckily, I have been able to buy them when they are down and sell when they are at their peaks. I sold mine today at an average of $0.90. But, I can kind of guarantee that it will go down to 80 cents or maybe even 70 cents and then go back up and down and up and so on………
Don’t believe me? Look at their charts. It is like a freaking wave. I urge my readers to be careful with these stocks because they seem predictable in a long run, but very risky if you are a day trader.

FRE stock Chart

FRE stock Chart

This is probably the reason for the sudden increase in the price of the stocks today:

The federal regulator who has overseen Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac since the government seized control of the two mortgage finance companies last year plans to leave the government by the end of this month.

In an interview with The Washington Post on Wednesday, James B. Lockhart III, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said he will return to New York and work in finance.

Lockhart has spent about eight years with various federal agencies in Washington. He has led the FHFA and a predecessor agency for three years.

“I actually didn’t expect to stay as long as I have stayed,” he told the Post. “Given what happened a year ago, it meant I had to help work our way through this. Now we’re at the point where we’re seeing some stabilization.”

D.C.-based Fannie Mae and McLean-based Freddie Mac were put under federal conservatorship in September and received billions of dollars in federal aid as mounting problems with bad loans threatened their solvency.

In the Post interview, Lockhart said the Obama administration is reviewing its options for the future of the two companies, including spitting up both of them, establishing a government-backed entity that would absorb their loan losses and setting up another organization that would provide housing finance.

Lockhart’s replacement has not been named yet.

Source

I will probably buy them back if the price goes down to 0.70’s.